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【变局·专栏12】这是Gn时代(中英双语)

人大重阳 2019-12-16
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编者按:中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文在《环球时报》英文版专栏“Wang Wen on Changing World”的第十二篇专栏文章《这是Gn时代》于今日刊出,现将中英文内容转发如下:




It is hard to imagine that Azerbaijan, a country that ranks above 90 in terms of area and population, has such a global appeal, if you haven't taken part in Global Baku Forum. I almost thought President Ilham Aliyev was the leader of a superpower, when he stood in the center of more than 40 former presidents and prime ministers from more than 30 countries and posed with them for pictures at the opening ceremony.


没参加过巴库全球论坛,很难想像阿塞拜疆这个国土面积与人口规模均排在全球 90位以后的国家竟有如此大的全球号召力。阿塞拜疆总统阿利耶夫站在正中间,与来自30余国40多位前任总统、总理开幕式合影时,在现场的我差点以为他是超级大国领导人。


Aliyev got elected to office for the first time in 2003. Within the next 10 years, Azerbaijan had thoroughly developed its oil economy with a 7-fold increase in citizens' income, and planned to build the world's tallest building that would be 1050-meter tall. When you roam Pedestrian Street in the center of Baku, you will find similarities with Paris and the view along the Caspian Sea will remind you of the Shanghai Bund in China's financial capital. Baku organized the European Games a few years ago. In 2016, it held Formula One, the world's top racing event, and made this city with a population of only 3 million more cosmopolitan.


阿利耶夫2003年第一次当选总统,此后10年,阿塞拜疆大力发展石油经济,居民收入增长7倍,还规划建一座1050米的世界最高建筑。在巴库,市中心步行街与巴黎有几分相似,里海之滨的景观让人想起上海外滩。几年前,巴库成功举办欧洲运动会。2016年,全球最大型赛事F1落户巴库,更使这个仅有 300万人口的城市呈现全球大都市的范儿。


The Baku Forum was launched in 2013 during Aliyev's third term. The forum invited dozens of political leaders to the conference every year. During the forum, the dialogues of civilizations brought together leaders of major world religions. The strategy of "Reviving the Silk Road" was proposed to build a trade, energy, finance and logistics center between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea to link Eastern Europe and West Asia which would create a strategic fulcrum for the development of Azerbaijan. This is in line with the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative in the Central Asian western corridor.


2013年,第三次当选总统的阿利耶夫开始打造巴库全球论坛,每年邀请数十位政要参会;还打造巴库文明对话,会聚全球各大宗教领袖;提出“复兴丝绸之路”战略,计划打造介于黑海和里海之间、东欧与西亚之间的贸易、能源、金融、物流中心,为阿塞拜疆发展创造战略支点。这与中国“一带一路”倡议的中亚西亚走廊高度吻合。


It is not common for small developing countries to have such a broad strategic vision. Other countries which were not frequently reported by Western media - Bahrain, Uzbekistan, Hungary and Latvia - had similar big ideas. What's more, some international companies, foundations and social scientists also had similar vision.


这可真不是小国的战略视野。一些不被西方媒体频繁报道的小国家,都有类似大构想,比如巴林、乌兹别克斯坦、匈牙利、拉脱维亚。当然,一些国际公司、基金会、社会科学家也有类似的大构想。


Don't underestimate any small country or non-state entity. In the post-G7 era, they're coming. The world won't be the one of G2 led by China and the US in the future, and the G20 may not be able to do as well. A few years ago, a pessimistic "G0" had been put forward and people believed that there would be no country that can dominate the future world.


不要小瞧任何小国家或非国家行为者后G7时代,他们正在粉墨登场。未来的世界,不可能是中国与美国共同领衔的G2时代,G20恐怕也有点力不从心。几年前,有人提出“G0”,认为没有任何国家主导世界的未来。这或许太悲观。


It has been argued that globalization is faced with unprecedented difficulties and local or regional forces are growing. It might be more appropriate to use "Glocalization" or "Glo-regionalization" to indicate that "Globalization", "Localization" and "Regionalization" have mixed influences on everyone and every place.


在我看来,全球主义的确遇到前所未有的困难,本土或区域势力正在壮大,用“全球本土主义”或“全球区域主义”更合适,即“全球化”与“本土化”、“区域化”多种力量夹杂混合地影响着每一个人、每个角落。


I would prefer calling it "Gn" which means neither China nor the US nor G20, but N kinds of forces instead of a single force that will influence or dominate different global events at various levels. These kinds of forces are not only traditional powers, but also regional ones (such as Azerbaijan), international organizations, non-governmental institutions, financial institutions, transnational corporations, opinion leaders, think tanks and media, etc. All of them form a cross overlapping international power network, blur the ownership of global authority, breach sovereign rights and interests, and weaken the traditional political structure.


这种状态,我将其称为“Gn”,意为不是国家,也不是中美两国,或 20国,而是有n种力量在不同层面影响或主导着全球不同的事态。这些力量不只是传统大国,更有区域强国(如阿塞拜疆)、国际组织、非政府机构、金融机构、跨国公司、意见领袖、智库、媒体等,组成了交叉重叠的国际权力网络,模糊化了全球权威归属,突破了主权归属权益,削弱了传统政治结构。


Jorg Friedrich, a professor at the University of Munich in Germany, used the term "New Medievalism" to describe the situation, likening the current era to the Middle Ages with the coexistence of empire, kingdom, tribe, duke and church that guided international governance. But perhaps "Gn" is easier to understand.


德国慕尼黑大学教授费里德里希曾发明“新中世纪主义”一词来形容,即像中世纪那样,帝国、王国、部族、公爵、教会、行会共存主导国际运行。但或许“Gn”更易于理解。


"Gn" is like the operating system and apps in a smartphone. Although the world order (operating system) is still dominated by the nations of the Westphalia system, there are different areas and regional affairs dominated by different actors (apps). In the Caucasus, Azerbaijan is very important; global wealth management is hugely influenced by Buffett’s thinking; in response to resolving climate change, a 16-year-old Swedish girl called Greta Thunberg seems to be a hero, and so on. Without the "operating system", nothing will work.  However, there are forces that constantly discover new "apps" or dominate new things in the old "apps".


“Gn”看上去像是智能手机的操作系统与APP。世界秩序(操作系统)仍然以威斯特伐利亚体系的民族国家为主,但却有不同的行为体(APP)主导的不同领域与不同区域的事务。在高加索一带,阿塞拜疆很重要;全球财富管理,离不开巴菲特的思考;应对气候变化,一位16岁瑞典少女似乎成了英雄,等等。没有“操作系统”,世界不会转;但是,不断有力量发现新“APP”,或在旧“APP”中主导着新事物。


In the era of Gn, global governance has entered the "deep water" area. China is willing to contribute, but it can't be as arrogant as the US. And Beijing doesn't have the willingness or ability to become a new world leader or fill the leadership vacuum left by Washington. For China, the best way is to pursue win-win results and cooperation, not to become enemy to any forces, and to make efforts within its capabilities.


Gn时代,全球治理进入了“深水区”。中国希望贡献力量,但不可能像美国那样狂妄与傲慢。中国不愿意、也没能力去当新的世界领导者,也不可能替代美国留下来的领导真空。中国最好的方式是,追求共赢与合作,不与任何人、任何力量为敌,力所能及地做些努力。


It is a period during which any power or anyone can play a leading role at any time. To be kind to others, not to bully others, and to pursue win-win results is a strategic choice to maximize the interests of all parties. So far, China has done a good job.


任何力量、任何人都有可能在任何时间发挥主导作用的时代。与人为善,不欺凌他人,追求共赢,是一种各方利益都会最大化的战略选择。至今为止,中国还算做得不错。


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人大重阳系列讲座No.182

名家讲坛·新中国70年 第十二讲

【对话名家】王文

中国智库七十年



  2019年11月14日(星期四)19:00-21:00  北京市海淀区中关村大街59号文化大厦3层多功能厅(人大东门往北100米)

主讲嘉宾:王文,中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长、丝路学院副院长


王文,中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长、丝路学院副院长、特聘教授,中国金融学会绿色金融专业委员会秘书长,国务院参事室金融研究中心研究员。曾任《环球时报》编委(主管评论)和社评起草人,2011年“中国新闻奖”获得者,专译编著作包括《强国长征路:百国调研归来看中华复兴和世界未来》、《看好中国:一位智库学者的全球演讲》、《伐谋:中国智库影响世界之道》等30余本。王文走访调研近百国(包括南极点),撰写的研究报告多次获党和国家领导人批示与肯定,是多个部委的咨询专家,曾获“2014中国十大智库人物”、“2015中国发展改革领军人物”、2016影响中国年度智库、2017年文化名家暨“四个一批”人才、2019年人大“国家高端智库”建设优秀成果对策研究特等奖等荣誉;2016年习近平总书记主持哲学社会科学工作座谈会,王文是十位发言学者之一。


主持人:庄雪娇,中国人民大学重阳金融研究院助理院长



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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院(人大重阳)成立于2013年1月19日,是重阳投资董事长裘国根先生向母校捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。

 

作为中国特色新型智库,人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员,旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前,人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理3个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心)。近年来,人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。


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